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Hydroclimatology and Solar Explorations

Climate & Weather Representations, Current Events, Polar Hydroclimatology, Science and Ethics

Global Warming, nothing to worry about

I once engaged in a public debate about Global Warming with celebrity climate change-ologist Mark Boslough. The debate was held at a Unitarian Church in Albuquerque, New Mexico, about a decade ago. I argued that the world was not significantly warming, and that Climate Change was “nothing to worry about”. These projections appear to be corroborated by the sum of recent satellite (and more) observations for the surface of our planet. The featured plot explains, because for most of the planet, there has been no significant temperature difference between 1979 and the present.

No attendees of the dual presentations by myself and then a few weeks later, by the other scientist, appeared convinced at that time either way. NASA GISS global surface temperature trend data was a topic associated with the debate. In contrast to that challenging resource, here is an animation of North American geostrophic temperatures over decadal spans similar to above. In these frames, the deeper the depression, the colder the 60-month-average temperature. And just as the above chart indicates, global temperatures hardly budge over time. For more on this geostrophic approach to climate, please visit the abeqas post for geostrophic temperatures.

This is not a still image. But the geostrophic temperature is so stable over decades, one can hardly tell.

The featured visual comparison at the beginning of this post, of the 1979 surface temperature profile lining almost exactly to the later two years 2014 and 2018, might be enough to sway a few that our planet is not approaching any climate change crises or tipping points. After all, this content is not based on sketchy models, or cherry picking, or appeals to authority, but rather on the most widely used and checked atmosphere observation resource of all. This includes all of the premier satellite data, which accordingly provides relatively uniform and continuous coverage across the planet, across decadal time spans.

The NASA GISS charts should match ECMWF data, but they do not. Both resources cannot be right. I think ECMWF is right, and so do thousands of practitioners who utilize it. So far as I know, few scientists appear to use NASA GISS temperature data for any other purpose than to promote a notion that the Earth is catching fire. Don’t get me wrong, I happen to think our hydroclimate is always naturally on fire, just in a more benign, reproducible and interesting way.

The top featured figure also invites a closer look at the mild temperature variations approaching the two poles. You can do this in order to compare ECMWF data to claims by virtually all subject matter experts, of both Arctic and Antarctic “Amplifications”. One can at least confirm that there is a slight rise in temperature over the Arctic latitudes and a slight drop in the Antarctic latitudes. I’ll approach this topic with nods to mentors and colleagues, and must keep most under wraps until a paper in co-authorship can be submitted and published.

A color field map of surface temperature TREND for Southern Hemisphere from 1979 through 2018 from ECMWF. The darker the blue, the more the area has cooled over the past 40 years. The warmer (redder) the hue, the more that area has warmed. DRAFT.

The northern hemisphere does show localized surface warming in the Arctic, and that appears to remain consistent with some wind patterns, which I explored two years ago here. I do find this map interesting of the Southern Hemisphere temperature trend for many reasons including because it appears to challenge the arguments by other subject matter experts that the Antarctic zone has experienced amplified warming. Who among us are right?

Did I forget to mention that the ECMWF is a universally valued and most impressive fusion of verifiable meteorological data from land, airborne instruments and many overlapping satellite coverages? Accordingly it’s appropriate to repeat that Climate Change really is nothing to worry about, other than the perpetually locked and loaded narrative itself. I always encourage and welcome verifications by independent parties. It’s easy to follow my lead, and any with moderate spreadsheet, internet and math abilities can verify this data directly from the ECMWF resource.

On the other hand, if you already find this even somewhat convincing, then what are you waiting for? Consider sharing concerns with lawmakers, educators, environmental-virtue signallers, and others whom your taxes fund and your purchases support.

Or if that’s not your style, a tip contribution at the right margin link might add value. I may only be a guy on an internet corner with a data squeegee, but at least I really did clean your windshield.

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