Decadal Scaled Hurricane Forecasting
The featured image reflects a partially tested decadal scaled hurricane forecasting product series. We use a proprietary precursor to conduct lagged forecasts of various averages of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
In a past post, I reviewed this potential product, based on a 2015 exercise. I noted the similarities of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to a US temperature domain, as well as the ACE for Atlantic hurricane domain.
But over recent years, the AMO was repeatedly changed, and we no longer can consider it to be a stable reference. We will migrate our forecasting product from the AMO to an ACE forecast in several ways:
- We no longer will rely upon auto correlation based forecasts for this ACE parameter for any purpose.
- We will expand to include Northern Indian Ocean cyclone forecasts.
- We will continue to examine lags and averages for higher fidelity, longer term forecasts.
- We will conduct decadal scaled temperature forecasts for selected regions and clients.
- We will compare to prevailing ACE forecasts which are closest in scales to ours.
Please contact us if you and/or your organization are interested in purchasing exclusive or nonexclusive forecasting services.
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