Hydroclimatology and Solar Explorations


Decadal Scaled Hurricane Forecasting

The featured image reflects a partially tested decadal scaled hurricane forecasting product series. We use a proprietary precursor to conduct lagged forecasts of various averages of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).

In a past post, I reviewed this potential product, based on a 2015 exercise. I noted the similarities of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to a US temperature domain, as well as the ACE for Atlantic hurricane domain.

In 2016 MWA posted this comparison of the ACE, AMO, and a temperature example associated with northern New Mexico.

But over recent years, the AMO was repeatedly changed, and we no longer can consider it to be a stable reference. We will migrate our forecasting product from the AMO to an ACE forecast in several ways:

  1. We no longer will rely upon auto correlation based forecasts for this ACE parameter for any purpose.
  2. We will expand to include Northern Indian Ocean cyclone forecasts.
  3. We will continue to examine lags and averages for higher fidelity, longer term forecasts.
  4. We will conduct decadal scaled temperature forecasts for selected regions and clients.
  5. We will compare to prevailing ACE forecasts which are closest in scales to ours.

Please contact us if you and/or your organization are interested in purchasing exclusive or nonexclusive forecasting services.

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