Hydroclimatology and Solar Explorations

Climate Forecasts & Predictions

The Persistence of the Sun Upon Climatic Variations

The featured image overlaps with a work in progress that is in peer review. It covers the classic Auto Regression Moving Average (ARMA) approach applied to the Sun, a parameter of the western tropical Pacific Ocean, and several rivers of the Southwestern US.   I use this figure in part to explain much of the relatively high performance of our solar based hydrologic forecasts in the Southern Rocky Mountains.

legend description:   ACF  is Auto Correlation Function

5yta  is the five year trailing average, typically derived from monthly average products.

SSN = Sunspot numbers

TWWP = a parameter of the atmosphere over the Western Equatorial Pacific

PnP, Animas, GnG, LFRUT = Streams of the Rocky Mountains, Western US

These patterns appear to be consistent with what I’ve termed the persistence of the Solar Mountain.  Once again but through a different profile, the Sun’s auto correlation pattern is central to a persistent division between streams of the Rocky Mountains as this image samples from.

A better understanding of the cross regressions between all of these featured variables is also a focus of the paper in review.



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