Hydroclimatology and Solar Explorations

Climate Forecasts & Predictions

Predicting the AMO 8 years in advance

According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC):

“Understanding the nature of teleconnections and changes in their behavior is central to understanding regional climate variability and change”

One of the most important of those teleconnections concerns the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which is well known to impact climate at regions around the world.  But can the AMO itself be forecast?

As with the PDO, yes, but apparently only currently by our firm.  Moreover, it can be done nearly a decade in advance, with extraordinary accuracy.  In the featured animation, the green line represents a moving average AMO time series and the blue dots represent forecasts of the AMO which are purely based on precursor ensembles from 8 years earlier.

Our full forecast therefore extends for 8 years into the future regarding this important parameter.  The UN IPCC relies upon a costly global circulation model (GCM) effort in progress to accomplish the same purpose and yet our forecasts appear to cast further into the future, with higher fidelity.

Our AMO forecast ensemble includes other multi year averages, including a 1 year and 10 year trailing average, for different spans of time into the future (accuracies vary considerably for these options).   Please check our Store page for this climate precursor forecast product, or contact us for early access.

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