I forecast an historically wet April for 2026. I posted this on March 30: https://abeqas.com/chance-for-above-average-rain-across-idahos-snake-river-this-april/
Now that I’ve advanced on some other hydroclimatological priorities, I have some breathing room to evaluate the forecast I made. By any measure it appears to be accurate. Here’s an external corroborating link, demonstrating not only that Idaho precipitation over April 2026 was higher than normal, but that it was the highest recorded precipitation ever for April. https://idahonews.com/news/local/new-record-wettest-april-on-record-says-national-weather-service-boise
In my original forecast (top link) I also considered that NOAA claimed drought for Idaho over April 2026. Instead, and again, the rainfall for Idaho was historically high. My forecast was a categorical forecast, and so this accuracy follow-up claim is complete in that regard.
To follow up a bit and not to rely purely on external media, here is what I extracted from era5 data for specific precipitation roughly at surface, for this past April. Idaho a bullseye of moisture.
Was my forecast just a lucky guess? No. It was a conscious categorical forecast, much like many in meteorology routinely attempt. Note I’m not following other parts of the country in this case. I focused on Idaho because the lagged solar correlations were the highest.
I’m attaching a screenshot from the media article in case it becomes pay-walled.
