A research study of mine is in publication by the Hydrological Sciences Journal [1].  I believe it is the first scientific paper to demonstrate that solar forcing can account for a plurality of the global hydrosphere’s long term circulation phenomena.  It is also the first paper to explicitly identify links between the full thickness of the atmosphere and solar cycles.  Finally it is the first study to demonstrate a lagged and statistically significant correlation between sunspot numbers (including related indexes such as TSI) and climate, and to use that lag to forecast river flows years in advance.

It may only be my opinion as the author, but I believe that the long term impact of this paper will lead to major structural corrections in fields including weather, cyclone and climate forecasting, drought attributions, ocean acidification attributions, ozone hole attributions, volcanic climate causation attributions, ocean circulation misconceptions (AMOC for example), polar ice and global temperature attributions, galactic cosmic ray (gcr) – atmospheric moisture attributions, greenhouse gas – atmospheric moisture attributions, and paleoclimate reconstructions.

I am also mindful that further work could lead to other outcomes, and I welcome critical attention from any and every peer.  Aside from the evidence provided in supporting posts at this site, I feel that these structural changes are possible because the paper strikes a new solution path, provides highly reproducible and verifiable content, includes forecasts which are already proving out, offers explanations of climate features which cannot be explained by any current approach, and identifies a circulation mechanism which is aligned with and expands upon classical global circulation theories of Hadley and Walker.

The featured image is excerpted from the first two figures of a pre-publication version of that paper, and introduces relative decadal – scaled changes of solar irradiance to the equivalent changes in a wide variety of other hydroclimatologic variables, including the PDO, ENSO, the SOI, and streams of the Himalayas and the Southern Rockies.

The bottom partial frame covers a variation of a chart that I have also featured in an earlier post.  It relates sub-decadal scaled cyclonic energies including those of hurricane scale, to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and a full atmosphere thickness temperature record associated with the southern Rocky Mountains (the upper Rio Grande watershed).  I am working on a follow up paper which focuses on those three parameters.


[1] Article Title:  Application of lagged correlations between solar cycles and hydrosphere components towards sub-decadal forecasts of streamflows in the Western USA.

Article DOI:  10.1080/02626667.2019.

Journal Title:  Hydrological Sciences Journal  ISSN: 2150-3435

Author:  Michael G. Wallace