It’s that time of year when we update our model forecast performance disclosures.  Much of this year was spent in prototyping and testing and deployment of a more advanced technique which was regionally limited.

In the forecast exercise, we projected 5 year average flows, three to six years in advance.  As the featured images show, our forecast for the year ending 2016 is estimated to have an error of roughly 22%.  To the best of our knowledge, no other climate forecaster has come close to this skill for this lead time, for any climate parameter.

performance-of-mwa-santa-fe-river-forecast-by-end-of-2016-part-b

MW&A applies our unique approach, grounded in best stochastic hydrologic practices, in producing these forecasts, projections, predictions and/or hindcasts (fpph), and in analyzing past forecasts and forecasts by others.  MW&A makes no further representations on fpph performance or accuracy.  Buyers are cautioned and advised to treat all hydroclimatologic forecasts as exercises which although based on quantifiable data, are nonetheless subject to extensive uncertainty.

Copyright 2015, 2016, 2017.  Michael G. Wallace,  MW&A  www.abeqas.com

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