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New solar models support Wallace 2019 paper

Recent developments in simulating our planet’s climate using an alternate solar cycle “driver” in comparison to the conventional greenhouse gas emissions-based driver, are drawing interest, or should be.  The featured image from [1] is a great demonstration of how well a largely solar-forced climate model can capture essential atmospheric observations.  This excerpt from [1] appears to well complement my own paper [2].  Notably both papers were published within months of each other in early 2019.  Mine was first, ha ha, but in any case we are complementary.

I’ll gradually populate this post with the essential and most interesting images.  For now one can see from this minor featured excerpt that, much as I did, the authors now recognize that there is a high solar cycle (SC) correlation to conditions in the Western Equatorial Pacific (WEP).  Much as I did, they now explore interesting high correlations of similar parameters including winds, precipitation patterns and pressures across that area, along with lagged parameters.  They don’t forecast as I did, nor did they expand their view towards rivers as I have.  But ultimately I expect that their work, my work, and these other researchers‘ works will align very nicely and transparently.

This is at least a departure for one of the authors of [1].  In 2010 Gray et al. asserted that the so called Solar Constant was not enough to explain climate change [3].  That paper represented that “..models can only reproduce the late twentieth century warming when anthropogenic forcing is included, in addition to the solar and volcanic forcings [IPCC, 2007].”

Now in the new paper, the solar based global circulation model matches observations well, especially when greenhouse gases and volcanic effects are disregarded.   My own paper anticipated that same direction, and has led to some of what I like to call “the world’s most transparently accurate climate forecasts” to date.  This animation which links to an example demonstrates..

click to animate

I’ll follow up at this same post or a later one, because there are many interesting comparisons to add, especially because they focus on surface conditions, and I focus on the full atmosphere.

Next, a comparison of their highest annual correlation zone overlain to my own study area from [2].  They cover the same western equatorial Pacific zone.

Click to animate

I can conclude that it doesn’t really matter whether one focuses on the surface or the full thickness of the atmosphere.  As I introduced in [2], the Sun is the primary driver of this moisture circulation.

On the other hand, priority of innovation should matter.  My innovation of identifying key premier and lagged connections of the WEP to solar cycles, and the development of accurate hydroclimatologic forecasts from those, dates back to late 2015.  This is evident from my transactional consulting contracts for the related forecasts, along with numerous posts including this 2016 announcement of that solar application.

Accordingly the key take-home assertion by [1], that solar cycle based analyses points to better forecasting applications, has already been achieved by [2].  I do welcome more attention to be applied to both works.  They are each independent, important, and surprisingly complementary.  It would also be a welcome development for Gray, Misios and the other authors to catch up further on the forecasting I have pioneered, and to also attribute that priority work as they advance.  For my part, I value the added background from their paper and plan to feature additional and most interesting solar based notions which anticipated both works.

References

[1]  Misios, S., Gray, L.J., Knudsen, M.F., Karoff, C., Schmidt, H., and Haigh, J.  2019.  Slowdown of the Walker circulation at solar cycle maximum.  PNAS.  April 9, 2019.  Vol 116  no. 15.

[2] Wallace, M.G., 2019, Application of lagged correlations between solar cycles and hydrosphere components towards sub-decadal forecasts of streamflows in the Western US.   Hydrological Sciences Journal, Oxford UK  Volume 64 Issue 2.   doi: 10.1080/02626667.2019

[3] Gray, L.J., Beer, J., Geller, M., Haigh, J.D., Lockwood, M., Matthes, K., Cubasch, U., Fleitmann, D., Harrison, G., Hood, L., Luterbacher, J., Meehl, G.A., Shindell, D., van Geel, B., and White, W., 2010. Solar influences on climate. Reviews of Geophysics, 48. doi:10.1029/2009RG000282

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