Can global ocean pH anticipate drought in the western US, 8 years in advance?
Does global ocean pelagic pH (GOPpH) anticipate moisture of the southwestern US, 8 years in advance?
Correlations can always be spurious, and this is certainly a candidate. However so long as a commensal correlation based forecast can outperform causal based forecasts, it deserves continued attention. Perhaps some day a cause will make sense.
Our business model was initially founded based upon the connections between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and stream flows of the western United States. These connections have both causal and commensal features.
Now a new GOPpH time series* appears to offer the potential for moisture forecasts in the same study area, with a similar fidelity as well as a much longer lead time.
* paper in review: A DATA BASED TIME SERIES FOR GLOBAL OCEAN PELAGIC PH
This paper can be downloaded (intended for researchers only) from academia.org.
As it is reviewed, I add some preliminary material below as a placeholder.
by 13 July, 2 new figures and a supporting table ready to be potentially integrated with references and text. I note that even through the crude lens of a Student’s t Test, the connections and non connections map out in a way that is consistent with related regression analyses. Nomenclature: “phriends” indicates all other variables considered, including CO2, a stream in the southwest US, Sunspot numbers, and three ocean indexes; the PDO, the AMO, and the ENSO.
|Null Hypothesis Test Case||t Stat|||t Stat|||Tdiff||Is abs(t Stat) less than TC2T?||Bayesian Non – Parametric Conclusion||t Critical two-tail (TC2T)|
|GOPpH, PDO||-0.2||0.2||1.801||YES||values might be from the same distribution||1.985|
|GOPpH, Otowi||-0.6||0.6||1.375||YES||values might be from the same distribution||1.98|
|GOPpH, ENSO||-0.7||0.7||1.291||YES||values might be from the same distribution||1.985|
|GOPpH, AMO||-1.2||1.2||0.775||YES||values might be from the same distribution||1.985|
|GOPpH, SSN||-1.5||1.5||0.513||YES||values might be from the same distribution||1.984|
|GOPpH, MLCO2||2.7||2.7||-0.712||NO||Values are not likely from the same distribution||1.991|
MW&A applies our unique approach, grounded in best stochastic hydrologic practices, in producing these forecasts, projections, predictions and/or hindcasts (fpph), and in analyzing past forecasts and forecasts by others. MW&A makes no further representations on fpph performance or accuracy. Buyers are cautioned and advised to treat all hydroclimatologic forecasts as exercises which although based on quantifiable data, are nonetheless subject to extensive uncertainty.
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